SL 2002 Preview

by Greg Nims

This year's draft took 3 weeks or so, once the disk arrived. Bonds was the only player on the board for 2 weeks, but it moved quickly after that. The chat was a great night for the draft, really got a lot done. Once again this year parity is king, as even the rook had what I think was a very good draft. On to the preview.

Molsen Lights

Gretna Rabid Dogs

Pitching

The Dogs snagged Randy Johnson (16G) as the supposed top pitcher in the draft, and added John Burkett (13GZ) for one of the better 1-2 punches. Wade Miller (13) and Kevin Appier (11) supply a lackluster but not pathetic 3 and 4, and Omar Daal (6Z) hopes not to get killed.

Felix Rodriguez (21G) and lefty Mike Stanton (16GZ) give the Dogs one of the top tandems in the pen also, both with a lot of games and innings. Vladimir Nunez (15), Lee Grove (14G), and lefty Jason Christiansen (13) supply some depth, and the Q (Paul Quantrill) gives the pen a 12GZZ.

I just realized how the Dogs' rotation and pen are oddly similar: a top-rated non-Z, a very good Z, a bunch of middling non-Zs, then a low-rated Z. Hopefully this formula will work. Overall, the staff is pretty short on Zs, and 2/5 the rotation has Gs and 2/3 the relief staff, which are both relatively low. While the staff has good ratings, its peripherals are fairly weak, but I still think it'll finish in the top third in ERA.

Grade: B+

Offense

The Dogs stayed with the franchise formula of solid hitters at the defensive positions (Jeter, Boone, and Beltran up the middle), followed by good but not great hitters at the wing positions. Cliff Floyd, Juan Gonzalez, Maggs Ordonez and Fred McGriff should provide some punch, but like last year's Splinters, the franchise will depend more on the little ball in a basher's league to get things done. Also like last year, this team appears to be a high average, low walk, low ISO team. We have the runners for the hit and run, but do we have the hitters? The Splinters finished a hair over the league's average runs scored, and I think the Dogs would consider themselves happy with such a result.

Grade: C-

Defense

Generally the franchise formula has mostly been solid defensively, great OF arms, and a weak throwing catcher so we have a solid hitter behind the plate. Pretty much by accident, the Dogs threw that plan out the window. The outfield will generally be Beltran 2-35 in CF, and Maggs and JuanGone both at 2-32 on the wings. This has to be the weakest throwing outfield in franchise history.

The infield consists of Jeter(8) and Boone(8) supplying a decent keystone combo, but the corners will be a Conine(3)/Boone(4) platoon and McGriff(3) at first. Should be one of the weaker infields in the league. The most surprising part of the Dogs' defense is two excellent arms behind the plate, if not the greatest handlers back there. LaRue (7+6 pb3) and Girardi (7+5 pb2) should keep opposing base stealers at bay, but hopefully the won't throw too many into center, let too many to the backstop, and drop too many throws at the plate. Should be a stressful year for the Dogs' manager.

The catchers are the only thing keeping this grade decent.

Grade: D

Overall

Pitching, decent offense, and a weak defense. Looks like a fun year.

Grade: C

Fallon Ice Men

Pitching

Keith continued his recent run of deep if not great rotations, this year going with Darryl Kile (13Z), Steve Sparks (12Z), Greg Maddux (11GZZ), Paul Abbott (11W), and Jeff Weaver (7G).

The pen is actually fairly weak for the franchise, but still solid. Steve Kline (lefty 20H) is 89 games at an elite level, and Danys Baez (17) is a decent #2. Lefty Mike Remlinger (14Z) and Kazuhiro Sasaki (14Z) are a solid middle, and Danny Patterson (12ZG) and Buddy Groom (L 11GZ) give the back of the pen good control.

The staff isn't great, but its above average. Last year, I had a few quibbles with Keith's staff, but it ended up #3 in ERA, so we'll see how this one turns out.

Grade: B

Offense

ARod returns to the franchise for the second straight year, and has a couple guys with him this time. The Asps last year finished 7th in runs scored, a good bit behind 6th place Griswold. SL-cursed Brian Giles should hopefully provide punch, but you never know. Mike Butcher is the team's third best hitter, but where's he gonna play? DH? Kent, Aramis Ramirez and Paul LoDuca will help, but there are fringe hitters Olerud, Mondesi and Kotsay in the lineup, without a lot of fire power on the bench. Karim Garcia is a limited J4, but I have LeCroy so what can I say? I don't think this offense will be great, but it will outdo the Asps, who I somehow gave a B.

Grade: C

Defense

The Ice Men are very good defensively. Their regular outfield will have the relatively weak armed Giles (2-30) mostly in left but getting some PT in center, Kotsay (2-37) will get most of the time in center, with Mondesi (3-39) being the defensive specialist in right. Devo (2-33), Reggie Sanders (2-36), and even Denny Hocking (2-37) give the Ice good depth.

The infield is equally strong, with ARod (9), Kent (8), Aramis (4), and Olerud (5) getting the majority of the innings. Hocking will back up most positions with solid ratings. The catching platoon of LoDuca (7+3) and Blanco (8+4) is better than most in the league.

Grade: A-

Overall

A great defense is never a ticket for the playoffs, but it helps. If Keith can scratch out enough runs to support his pitching, he could return to the playoffs for the 9th time.

Grade: B-

Ewell Blight

Pitching

After riding the league's best offense to 77 wins last year, Graham took pitching with 4 of his first 5 picks. The roation of Mulder (14GZ), Leiter (12Z), Lieber (12Z), Black Sabathia (11W) and Shane (6Z) is top heavy, which could be a good design for the playoffs.

Top reliever Arthur Rhodes (L 21GZ) anchors the pen, with Alan Levine (17) and Troy Percival (16G) filling out the top half. Byung-Hyun Kim (15W), Jason Grimsley (14) and Pedro Borbon (L 11LZ) provide a shaky bottom half to the pen.

A mostly Z rotation is support by a mostly non-Z pen, and HR control is very under-represented here. I'm not sure how this will turn out, and if Graham is the manager to pull it off. Preplays show the Blight as finishing near the top in ERA, so what do I know?

Grade: B-

Offense

The offense has a lot of talent, but also has a bunch of sits needed. Chipper, Sheffield, Palmeiro, and Drew are the big sticks. Catalanatto and IRod are strong, but Trot, Hidalgo, and Guillen are below average hitters. The could follow franchise tradition with a lot of GIDP, but the Blight do have some good pinch runners on the pines.

Grade: B

Defense

The defense is all over the place, with likely starters Chipper 3B3 and Catalanattto 2B6 at one extreme, and IRod C9+6, Carlos Guillen SS9, and Richard Hidalgo CF3-36 at the other. Overall, slightly above average.

Grade: C+

Overall

The front of the rotation and the offense could be enough to carry Graham to his first playoff appearance. As much as this pains me, I make Ewell the slight favorite in the Molson. I think the bullpens -- each team in the division has one of the top 3 relievers -- could be the deciding factor.

Grade: B

Cousin Chad

Hatfield Rainmakers

Pitching

The Great White Hope enters his 3rd year still searching for his first playoff appearance. The rotation is Mark Buehrle (L 13Z), Javier Vazquez (13Z), Andy Pettitte (L 10GZ), Brad Penny (9GZ), and Randy Wolf (L 8) is solid with good control, but not spectacular.

After the Pearl disaster, Dave seemed reluctant to put his faith in any relievers. He did get Chad Fox (20GW) as his ace, with Keith Foulke (17H) as his setup man. Paul Shuey (15H), Octavio Dotel (15HW), limited IP Jeremy Fikac (16GZ), and Jeff Fassero (L 11GZ) round out the pen. Fairly weak, with a very limited 16 and an 11 as the only Zs. This staff just looks like its missing something to me, but it seems to produce in preplays. Maybe cuz it doesn't have to face itself.

Grade: B-

Offense

Barry Bonds makes things easy for a manager. Barry is expected to challenge a lot of the major SL records, and I'm sure he won't disappoint. The Rainmakers have Albert Pujols, Mike Piazza, and Moises Alou as the other boppers in the middle of the lineup. There aren't any weak hitters in the lineup, as Grace, Biggio, Koskie and Tejada all have their positives. This squad should be in the top 3 in runs scored, if not #1.

Grade: A-

Defense

The defense is good, with an outfield of Barry 3-32, Griffey 3-36, and Moises 2-34. Andruw will get lots of PT with his 3-36, so about the only negative is Moises' possible time in RF, but a 2-34 isn't all that bad.

About the only weak spot on the infield is short with Tejada and Uribe both being an 8. Koskie (3B4), Biggio (2B8), and Grace (1B5) are good. The problem spot is catcher, where Piazza will apparently start with his 7-4. Dave remarked to me that Kendall didn't throw too many guys out last year. Well, Piazza is just offering them second base. A quick run through the staff shows weak moves to first, and the pen is a grand +1 combined. Ouch. Ben Davis (7+1) and Edwards Guzman (6+3) are adequete subs.

The catcher situation can bring down the grade immensely.

Grade: C+

Overall

Barry, Barry, Barry. Dave has enough pitching to support the offense, and the defense will help. I have to make Mr. Bonds and Rainmakers the favorites in the Chad.

Grade: B

Soso Impersonation

Pitching

A roation of Aaron Sele (13Z), Chan Ho (12), Tom Glavine (L 11), Bartolo's Colon (8), and Jason Schmidt (7G) isn't exactly going to strike fear into opponents. With Pedro as the 6th, Bob must be hoping for injuries, but only one starter (Schmidt) is a J3.

The pen is anchored by Dave Weathers (17G), with Fansworth (15), Ricardo "Not a cataract, a" Rincon (15G), and Robb Nen (14GZ) as the supporting staff. Guardado (12G) and Scott Sullivan (12Z) provide back end innings.

In preplays, the Impersonation have finished 1/3 of a run out of 8th place in ERA. The defense makes the runs allowed totals look slightly better, but I don't see how the staff will not finish last in runs allowed.

Grade: D

Offense

Giambi is the heart of the clubhouse and the lineup, with Jim Edmonds and Shawn Green around him in the order. Ichiro and Robbie Alomar provide two excellent top of the order hitters, while Cirillo, Mientkiewicz, and the other two hitters (C and SS, depending on who is playing) won't provide too much punch. Preplays have the Impersonation hitting for a high average but finishing in last in HR. Can Coach Taterka run them into the playoffs? History has not shown it.

Grade: C

Defense

The defense is very good, which unfortunately is a franchise hallmark. Of the three areas of pitching, offense, and defense, defense has the lowest correlation to winning ptg of the three. The outfield should be Green 3-35, Edmonds 3-31, and Ichiro 3-38. The infield is Cirillo 3B5, Halter/Eckstein SS8, Alomar 2B9, and Mientkiewicz 1B5. Giambi will get some time at first, but shortstop is the only weak spot. Matheny is a powerhouse behind the plate (C9+5 pb1) but how much will he play? Posada will get most of the balance with his 8-2 pb3, while Redmond chips in with 48 games of 7+1 pb1.

Grade: A

Overall

In the first 7 rounds of the draft, Bob took 2 pitchers, while the next lowest amount was 4. The offense isn't good enough to make up for it, and the defense, while very good, cannot carry a club. This roster is just Soso.

Grade: C-

Caledonia Wild Turkeys

Pitching

Joe took pitching with his first 5 picks, including 4 starters and his top reliever. The rotation looks like Curt Schilling (14Z), Joe Mays (13Z), Moose (13Z), Fuller Starr (12Z) and the last player selected in the draft, Robert Person (8L). The second straight year Joe took Person, both times with a large negative, last year a W, this year an L. I suppose this is the league's top rotation. The 5th starter drops out of the rotation in the playoffs, so Caledonia could have all Zs, 12+, as his playoff rotation.

While the rotation is very strong, his pen isn't too impressive. Bob Wickman will be his bullpen ace at 17GZ and 70 games, but it drops off to Bill Wagner (L 15G) and the infamous Todd Pearl (14H) after that. The backed is solid with Alfonseca (13Z) and Lincoln (13GZ).

The league's top rotation backed by an adequate pen should treat Caledonia well. But looking at the staff, I'm not sure if the low rated pen will compliment the rotation. One thing the staff lacks is HR control grades, the only starter with anything is Person's L, but the pen does have an H and three Gs. Like I said, this is a good staff to have, but I feel that something is lacking from making it overpowering.

Grade: A--

Offense

For going all pitching early, Joe did cobble together a decent lineup. It is top heavy with sluggers Jeff Bagwell, Manny Ramirez, Jim K. Thome, and Vladimir Guerrero. Troy Glaus adds some slugging, but the remainder of the starting lineup is fairly weak. Cristian Guzman, Jose Vidro, Torii Hunter, and the cathers (Doug Mirabelli, A.J. Pierzynski, and Shawn Wooten) give you a little, but not a lot. These guys also have somewhat limited games.

Although there are some weaknesses in the Wild Turkey lineup, Joe did a fine job with the bench. Homer Bush, Bill Mueller, Jose Valentin, Doug Glanville, and Rondell White give the Turkeys a wide variety of skills that are needed in a bench. When the weaker starters sit, there really won't be any dropoff.

Grade: B-

Defense

The outfield is strong with Vlad (2-37) in right, Hunter (3-37) in center, and Manny (2-33) in left and Doug Glanville (3-33) off the bench. The infield is decent with Glaus 3B4, Guzman SS8, Vidro 2B7 and Bagwell 1B4, but not great. The catching platoon of Mirabelli 8+2, Pierzynski 8+0, and Wooten 6+3 is fairly weak, but won't kill ya.

Grade: C+

Overall

I like Caledonia's team built on pitching, and with an offense that should/could be middle of the pack. Joe will give Dave a run for his money.

Grade: B

Swinea Schwinea

Savoy Truffles

Pitching

The Truffles went for the all-Z staff, and made it. The rotation of Jamie Moyer L 14Z, Jarrod Washburn L 11Z, Brad Radke 8Z, Alan Hunt 7Z, and Woody Williams 7LZ has great control, but not very impressive grades. Moyer is a good ace, but the bottom three could be problematic.

The pen is a good combination of high grades, Karsay 17GZ, Zimmerman 17LZ, and Rivera 16GZ, with innings eaters at the back of the pen in Ramiro Mendoza 11Z and Jeff Shaw 11Z. All 5 in the pen have high IP totals, which will be needed with the shallow rotation.

The staff has a great start with all Zs, but the HR control grades are lacking, and the pen might be a tad thin on IP compared to the rotation's limitations. Chris is one of the better bullpen handlers, so his grade takes that into consideration.

Grade: B

Offense

Todd Helton is a great player to build an offense around, and Savoy some strong hitters around him in Edgar, Rich Aurilia, Ellis Burks, and Scott Rolen. The bottom of the order isn't great with Jermaine Dye, Mike Cameron, Desi Relaford, and Charles Johnson, and Chris will have a fairly high number of games missed by his starting nine. Adam Dunn, David Segui, and Matt Lawton fill the holes adequately, while Zaun and Cross are a good compliment to Johnson.


I never finished this file, but am posting it after the season is over. I'm hoping to start a new habit of writing a preview, but not posting until after the season. I like writing down a preview before we see what the season brings, but not ruining anyone's playoff hopes before their time. In 2001, my preview said Steve had no shot at the playoffs, so of course he had the best record after 40. In 2002, Bob's team was the one I was probably the most critical of, so he won a division. Who will be the lucky team in 2003?

by Greg Nims, Sometime Spring 2002